Don’t Bother Doing The Math

What are the odds that you are here on Earth reading this because you were either :

a) created with intent
b) came into being by pure chance

Thankfully, I’ve never been interested in wagering my hard earned money on games of chance.  I’ve never been to Las Vegas or even in a casino for that matter.  Maybe it is because I am so tight-fisted with my hard earned money and I don’t want to lose it to something that has a high probability of failure.

I’ve never been to a racetrack either, and for the same reasons.  But I can tell you with all certainty that if I ever did choose to engage in parimutuel betting at a racetrack, I’d be far more inclined to bet with the odds versus against them.

Let’s have some hypothetical fun with this.  Pretend you were to bet on one of two horses in a horse race.  Let’s say that one horse had an impeccable pedigree.  This horse was sired by a long line of champions, had the best trainers, trained under the best conditions all it’s life, was cared for by highly qualified veterinarians and lived in the best stables money could buy.  In addition to this, the horse has a clean bill of health and, on top of all this, an undefeated record.

Let’s say the other horse is a last-minute stand-in with no prior racing history, is old, rather lame in one leg and was recruited while on it’s way to the glue factory.

Irregardless of what the oddsmaker’s would set the line at, would you bet on the second horse?

I know this analogy seems a bit over the top, but I wanted to describe an example of odds being so incredibly out of balance that no one with a brain larger than an oat-kernel would choose the longshot.

I’m sure you get where I’m going with this.

If we merely came into being by pure chance, by completely undirected chance events, then I believe the odds of our being alive here on Earth and reading this blog post are incredibly and incalculably beyond what I just described with the second horses odds.

While there are many instances of chance being the basis of the materialist worldview, I’ll cite only two that (to me) ought to give the materialist sufficient reason to consider rethinking their beliefs.  The first being the odds against interspecies evolution (macro-evolution). If interspecies evolution were the basis of all life on earth evolving from one microorganism to man (Richard Dawkins refers to this microorganism as the “first self-replicating molecule”), earth would be chock-full of fossils of the myriad of permutations needed to eventually reach man, but… it is not. Only an infinitesimally few are purported to exist, and those are not widely accepted as fossils of authentic transitional species.  In fact, I’ve read numerous accounts of the odds for “adaptive mutational change”  (required for macro-evolution theory) as being beyond absurd.

My second instance is “multiverse” theory, the belief that multiple concurrent universes are continually emerging, and we just happen to be the one that chance favored.  This “favor” being the one universe that just happened to have (by again, fantastic odds) all 30 or more universal constants that are necessary to sustain life.  Scientists themselves admit the odds are against it.

“Roger Penrose of Oxford University has calculated that the odds of our universe’s low entropy condition obtaining by chance alone are on the order of 1:10123, an inconceivable number. If our cosmos were indeed but one member of a much vaster multiverse of randomly ordered worlds, then it is vastly more probable that we should be observing a much smaller universe. The probability of our solar system forming randomly is about 1:1060, a vast number but inconceivably smaller than 10123.”   (see:  allaboutscience.org)

All of the odds I’ve seen that relate to how probable a naturally occurring universe would be with respect to both cosmology and biology are off the charts, and those odds are on distinct factors and not collectively.  Compound them collectively and the odds become more and more exponential, and to me, more and more ridiculous.

If any serious mathmatician looked at all the factors involved (both cosmological and biological) for life on earth to be the product of random chance, they would undoubtedly tell you that the odds would be so fantastically absurd that one shouldn’t even bother calculating them.


If you don’t want God, you’d better have a multiverse.  –  Bernard Carr

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